Three reasons why Global GDP will accelerate by Eric Chaney
End of 2009 business cycle and market indicators were not as bullish as they were in the first phase of the global recovery, which, tracked by the global trade of manufactured products, started in June.
Various signs of a global slowdown have recently appeared in business surveys, from China (PMI) to the US (see our Surprise Gap built from the ISM survey) and Germany (industrial production).
Global stock markets have moved sideways since the end of October, as uncertainties about the continuation of the recovery grew. In addition, the announced restructuring of Dubai World’s debt, the downgrade of Greece and the bailout of an Austrian bank have raised the markets’ awareness that, in a still deflationist world, debts do not vanish in thin air, they just move from hands to hands, like hot potatoes.
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